Forex Döviz: Exploring The Basics Of Foreign Exchange Trading

 

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Forex Döviz: Exploring The Basics Of Foreign Exchange Trading

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Add a description, image and link to the Forex topic page so developers can learn about it more easily. How so? The stock market, which is the market for most stocks, is governed by the micro-dynamics of other companies. On the other hand, the forex market is driven by macroeconomic trends that can sometimes take years to materialize.

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These trends are mainly manifested through these two major and currency covering products. Here we take a look at these trends, examine where they are happening and why. Then we will also look at what types of pairs offer the best opportunities for trade related trading.

There are only four major currency pairs in Forex, which makes it easy to follow the market. There it is:

It is understandable why the US, EU and Japan have the most efficient and liquid currencies in the world, but why the UK? Now, in 2020, India will have a larger GDP ($2.65 trillion compared to the UK’s $260 trillion), Russia’s GDP ($1.57 trillion) and Brazil’s GDP ($2.05 trillion) will equal the UK’s economic output.

The explanation that applies to most forex markets is culture. In the United Kingdom. It was the world’s first economy to create a stock market, and for a time the British pound, not the US dollar, served as the world’s reserve currency. Because of this heritage and London’s importance as a center of international foreign exchange trading, the pound is still considered one of the world’s major currencies.

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On the other hand, the Swiss franc ranks among the big four because of Switzerland’s reputation for moderation and fiscal prudence. At one time the Swiss franc was backed by 40% gold, but for many traders in the foreign exchange market it is still called “liquid gold”. In times of turmoil or recession, investors turn to the Swiss franc as a safe haven currency.

The two major currencies – in fact, the most liquid currency in the world – are EUR/USD. The pair trades 24 hours a day, five days a week, from Tokyo to London and New York at a value of about $1 million a day. These two currencies represent the world’s two largest economic entities: the annual GDP of $21.43 trillion and the Eurozone’s GDP of $13,335.84 billion.

Although US economic growth is better than that of the Eurozone (3.1% for the US compared to 1.6% for the Eurozone), the Eurozone economy produces a trade surplus while the US runs a trade deficit. The high status of the euro zone – and the size of the euro zone economy – make the euro an attractive alternative to the dollar. As a result, many major banks, including Russia, Brazil and South Korea, diversified their reserves into euros. Obviously, this diversification process takes time as many events or changes affect the forex market. This is why one of the most important characteristics of a successful Forex trading process is a long-term perspective.

To see the value of this long view, look at the images below, all of which use three simple-moving-average (three SMA) filters.

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Figure 1. EUR/USD exchange rate charted from March 1 to May 15, 2005. Note the recent price showing a breakout and the start of a downtrend as all three simple moving averages move below each other. Photo by Sabrina Jiang © 2020

The three SMA filter is a good way to measure the strength of the trend. The main feature of this filter is when the short-term (7-day SMA), medium-term (20-day SMA) and long-term trend (65-day SMA) all agree in the same direction. , then the behavior is reinforced.

Figure 2. Charted EUR/USD exchange rate from August 2002 to June 2005. Each bar corresponds to a week rather than a day (as in Figure 1). And on this long-term chart, a completely different view emerges – all the moves down to the upside remain strong, doing nothing more than to give newbies a starting point. Photo by Sabrina Jiang © 2020

Some traders may wonder why we use the 65 SMA. The correct answer is that we got this idea from future businessman and teacher John Carter, because this is the method he used. But the value of the SMA Tri-SMA filter is not the actual SMA value, but a combination of the short, medium and long term price movements given by the SMAs. As long as you use reasonable proxies for each of these processes, the three-SMA filter provides valuable analysis.

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Looking at EUR/USD on two different time frames, we can see how the trend signals diverge. Figure 1 shows the daily price action for March, April and May 2005, showing strong trends with a clear bearish bias. However, Figure 2, which shows weekly data for 2003, 2004 and 2005, paints a very different picture. According to Figure 2, EUR/USD is in a clear uptrend despite another sharp correction.

Warren Buffett, a well-known long trade investor, has come under a lot of criticism for taking a large long position in EUR/USD, which otherwise lost. But looking at the composition of Figure 2, it becomes clear why Buffett had the last laugh.

The three most common currencies in the forex market are USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD. The Canadian dollar is commonly referred to as the “loonie”, the Australian dollar as the “Aussie”, and the New Zealand dollar as the “kiwi”. These three countries are the world’s largest exporters and often move strongly with demand for each of their main exports.

For example, see Figure 3, which shows the relationship between the Canadian dollar and the price of crude oil. Canada is the largest exporter of oil to the United States, and energy exploration accounts for approximately 10% of Canada’s GDP. USD/CAD trades in opposite directions, so the Canadian dollar’s strength is driving the pair lower.

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Figure 3. This graph shows the relationship between Loni and crude oil prices. Canada’s economy is rich in oil reserves. This chart shows that when oil prices rise, it becomes profitable for someone holding Canadian dollars to buy US dollars. Photo by Sabrina Jiang © 2020

Although Australia does not have large oil reserves, the country is rich in precious metals and is the world’s second largest exporter of gold. In Figure 4 we can see the relationship between the Australian dollar and gold.

Figure 4. This chart looks at the relationship between Australian and gold prices (in US dollars). Find out how the gold rally from December 2002 to November 2004 was linked to the strong growth of the Australian dollar. Photo by Sabrina Jiang © 2020

Unlike major and commodity block currencies, which offer strong and high-quality opportunities to all traders, cross-currencies show high-quality trading. In Forex, crosses are defined as currency pairs without the USD as a link. EUR/CHF is one such cross and is known to be very good.